4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 5

Houston Texans 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 5, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP