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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 1-G.Joseph 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.08 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP