4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to CHI 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model