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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 14-R.Wright punts 55 yards to CHI 11, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 23 for 12 yards (25-Th.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.06 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model