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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 39

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(:19) 1-G.Joseph 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.88 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP