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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 14-R.Wright punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model