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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 67

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 4-B.Powell to MIN 27 for 10 yards (31-Ja.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.17 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model