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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.16 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model