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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(14:50) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 43 yards to IND 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 35 for 5 yards (81-J.Whyle, 86-K.Rader).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model