4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.63 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model