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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 5

Tennessee Titans 16 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(8:09) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to IND 5 for no gain (99-D.Buckner; 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +3.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model