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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model