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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 18-K.Philips to TEN 16 for 12 yards (45-E.Speed, 43-T.Denbow).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.36 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model