4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(:15) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 83-K.Granson.

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.38 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model