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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 9

Philadelphia Eagles 23 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 1-J.Hurts left guard to LA 8 for 1 yard (51-Z.VanValkenburg). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.23 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.68 EP