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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.46 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model