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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to PHI 5, Center-47-A.Ward. 18-B.Covey to PHI 20 for 15 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model