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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to PHI 9, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.84 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model