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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP