4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to LA 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.11 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model