4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 26

Jacksonville Jaguars 8 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 10-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model