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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 8

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to JAX 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 30 for 5 yards (33-S.Neal; 42-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP