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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 25 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to BUF 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-D.Harty MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 6, ball out of bounds at BUF 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.82 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP