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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to JAX 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP