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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 11

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 8-S.Martin punts 35 yards to JAX 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP