Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Houston Texans 3

(2:22) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to HOU 16, Center-49-L.McCullough. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 26 for 10 yards (37-D.Hellams; 49-L.McCullough).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.03 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model