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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 60

Houston Texans 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-M.Hughes pushed ob at ATL 22 for 10 yards (23-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model