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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 14

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Houston Texans 12

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 6-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model