Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 66

Houston Texans 12 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(4:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to ATL 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.94 EP
58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model