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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 24

Houston Texans 9 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model