4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 44

Houston Texans 9 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 11-C.Johnston punts 27 yards to ATL 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-43-N.Hewitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.65 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model