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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 13-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to HOU 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.09 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model