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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 75

Houston Texans 6 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to ATL 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 32, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model