Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 45

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Houston Texans 6

(8:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.28 EP
76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.93 EP

KICK -0.60 EP

40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model