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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 47

Houston Texans 6 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.27 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model