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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to HOU 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 3-N.Dell.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model