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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 25

Houston Texans 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model