Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(12:45) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to LV 38, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-34-J.Owens.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.39 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model