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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to GB 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model