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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to LV 26 for 3 yards (91-B.Nichols; 98-M.Crosby).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.19 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model