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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 35

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(:12) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (73-Y.Nijman), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.01 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model