Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(1:07) 19-D.Whelan punts 54 yards to LV 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-D.Carter to LV 24 for 6 yards (34-J.Owens; 85-T.Kraft).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model