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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 16
Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Green Bay Packers 3
What Actually Happened
(5:24) 3-D.Carter left end to GB 13 for 3 yards (25-K.Nixon).
The Three Options
GO
+3.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.98 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK
+1.81 EP
- 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
- 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT
-0.27 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
