Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(6:03) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to CIN 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Irwin to ARI 48 for 28 yards (47-E.Turner, 12-B.Gillikin).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model