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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(5:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 57-G.Pratt at ARI 48. 57-G.Pratt to ARI 48 for no gain. CIN-57-G.Pratt was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model