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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 22

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.44 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model