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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs right end to CIN 17 for -1 yards (57-G.Pratt).

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.03 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model