Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

(1:09) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 26 for 11 yards (52-V.Dimukeje; 83-G.Dortch).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -2.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model