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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 29 for 21 yards (32-J.Blount, 47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.27 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model