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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 10 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to DET 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-J.Chinn.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.03 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model